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2018 Election Coverage:
2018 Senate primary Coverage: AZ CA FL HI MA MD ME MI MS MT ND NE NJ NM NY PA TN TX UT VA WA
2018 Gubernatorial primary Coverage: AK AL AR AZ CA CO FL GA HI IA ID KS MA MD ME MI NE NH NM NV NY OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX WY
2018 House Coverage: AL-2 HI-1 KY-6 MA-7 NC-9 NV-4 WA-8


2018 Senatorial debates:
  -   AL-2017 - AZ - CA - CT - DE - FL - HI - IN -
  -   MA - MD - ME - MI - MN-2 - MN-6 - MO - MS-2 - MS-6 - MT - ND - NE - NJ - NM - NV - NY -
  -   OH - PA - RI - TN - TX - UT - VA - VT - WA - WI - WV - WY -

2018 Gubernatorial debates:
  -   AK - AL - AR - AZ - CA - CO - CT - FL - GA - HI - IA - ID - IL - KS -
  -   MA - MD - ME - MI - MN - NE - NH - NM - NV - NY -
  -   OH - OK - OR - PA - RI - SC - SD - TN - TX - VT - WI - WY -    
   

Two Democratic governors drop out: Aug. 15-21, 2019

Inslee (D-WA) to run Governor; Hickenlooper (D-CO) to run for Senate

  • Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) withdrew from the Democratic presidential primary on Aug. 15, then announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate.
  • Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA) withdrew from the Democratic presidential primary on Aug. 21, then announced his candidacy for re-election as Governor.
  • Both were facing exclusion from the upcoming September Democratic primary debates, which have a deadline at the end of August to meet....
  • Candidates must show 130,000 unique donors (double the 65,000 requirement from the June and July debates)
  • Candidates must poll at 2% or above in four polls (also double the 1% requirement from the June and July debates)
  • Candidates must accomplish BOTH of the above (EITHER criteria was sufficient for the June and July debates).
  • An archive of our coverage of the two candidates, side-by-side:

Political book by each candidate: The Opposite of Woe, My Life in Beer and Politics, by Hickenlooper Apollo's Fire, Igniting America's Clean Energy Economy, by Inslee
Politico 2020Dems analysis 8 excerpts from Hickenlooper 6 excerpts from Inslee
Meet the Press interviews during 2019 4 excerpts from Hickenlooper 2 excerpts from Inslee
"Meet the Candidates" presidential series (New York Times) 2 excerpts from Hickenlooper 4 excerpts from Inslee
South-by-Southwest political conference 3 excerpts from Hickenlooper 2 excerpts from Inslee
"2020 Candidate Stands" series (PBS News Hour) 5 excerpts from Hickenlooper 5 excerpts from Inslee
June presidential debate in Miami 3 excerpts from Hickenlooper 5 excerpts from Inslee
July presidential debate in Detroit 2 excerpts from Hickenlooper 8 excerpts from Inslee
Democratic presidential primary interviews (during 2019) 9 excerpts from Hickenlooper 9 excerpts from Inslee
Presidential interviews for 2020 (during 2017-2018) 17 excerpts from Hickenlooper 26 excerpts from Inslee
2016 State-of-the-State addresses 8 excerpts from Hickenlooper 5 excerpts from Inslee
2017 State-of-the-State addresses 3 excerpts from Hickenlooper 1 excerpt from Inslee
2018 State-of-the-State addresses 7 excerpts from Hickenlooper 6 excerpts from Inslee
2019 State-of-the-State addresses (Hickenlooper no longer Governor) 6 excerpts from Inslee
Where they got elected: Hickenlooper in 2014 Colorado Gubernatorial race Inslee in 2016 Washington Gubernatorial race
Where they are going next: Hickenlooper in 2020 Colorado Senatorial race Inslee in 2020 Washington Gubernatorial race

Source: See Gov. Hickenlooper's main page and Gov. Inslee's main page for full issue stances.


Second Democratic primary debate: July 30-31, 2019

20 contenders debate over two evenings

    State and current party control:
    (red for Republican; blue for Democrat)
    Predicted winner, and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
    Predicted loser(s), and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
Alabama Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Kay Ivey (R) 837 Walt Maddox (D) 368
Alaska Incumbent independent governor withdrew last week Mark Begich (D) 278+254 Bill Walker (I) 287
Mike Dunleavy (R) 140.
Arizona Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election David Garcia (D) 3,134 Doug Ducey (R) 2,990+28
Arkansas Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Asa Hutchinson (R) 860
Jared Henderson (D) 562
Mark West (L) 239
California Democratic governor Jerry Brown term-limited John H. Cox (R) 9,910+22 Gavin Newsom (D) 6,684+8
Colorado Democratic governor John Hickenlooper term-limited Jared Polis (D) 1,560+487+12 Walker Stapleton (R) 815+5
Connecticut Democratic governor Dan Malloy retiring Ned Lamont (D) 604+6 Bob Stefanowski (R) 120.
Florida Republican governor Rick Scott term-limited Ron DeSantis (R) 8,855+2,772+1,122+41=12,790 Andrew Gillum (D) 12,504+48=12,552
Georgia Republican governor Nathan Deal term-limited Stacey Abrams (D) 8,680+59 Brian Kemp (R) 4,720+25
Hawaii Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election David Ige (D) 405 Andria Tupola (R) 280.
Idaho Republican governor Butch Otter retiring Paulette Jordan (D) 820+7 Brad Little (R) 758
Illinois Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election J. B. Pritzker (D) 9,278+3 Bruce Rauner (R) 7,773+175
Iowa Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Kim Reynolds (R) 5,237+5 Fred Hubbell (D) 3,666+34
Kansas Incumbent Republican governor Jeff Colyer lost primary Kris Kobach (R) 1,102 Greg Orman (I) 815+148+7
Laura Kelly (D) 540.
Maine Republican governor Paul LePage term-limited Janet Mills (D) 1,449+63 Shawn Moody (R) 960.
Maryland Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Larry Hogan (R) 4,802 Ben Jealous (D) 1,587+9
Massachusetts Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Charlie Baker (R) 5,258+8 Jay Gonzalez (D) 1,748
Michigan Republican governor Rick Snyder term-limited Gretchen Whitmer (D) 2,744+13 Bill Schuette (R) 1,143
Minnesota DFL governor Mark Dayton retiring Tim Walz (DFL) 1,350+538+19 Jeff Johnson (R) 795+5
Nebraska Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Pete Ricketts (R) 743+1 Bob Krist (D) 738+3
Nevada Republican governor Brian Sandoval term-limited Steve Sisolak (D) 806 Adam Laxalt (R) 653
New Hampshire Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Chris Sununu (R) 993 Molly Kelly (D) 300.
Jilletta Jarvis (L) 290.
New Mexico Republican governor Susana Martinez term-limited Steve Pearce (R) 973+66+10=1,049 Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 646+329+32=1,007
New York Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election Andrew Cuomo (D) 3,767+33 Marc Molinaro (R) 2,009
Howie Hawkins (G) 1,124
Larry Sharpe (L) 617
Cynthia Nixon (I) 201
Ohio Republican governor John Kasich term-limited Richard Cordray (D) 4,450+26 Mike DeWine (R) 3,254+6
Oklahoma Republican governor Mary Fallin term-limited Drew Edmondson (D) 1,240 Kevin Stitt (R) 383+12
Chris Powell (L) 321+8
Joe Maldonado(L) 15
Oregon Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election Knute Buehler (R) 1,663 Kate Brown (D) 1,186
Pennsylvania Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election Scott Wagner (R) 5,601+11 Tom Wolf (D) 5,152+26
Ken Krawchuk (L) 506
Rhode Island Incumbent Democratic governor running for re-election Gina Raimondo (D) 260 Allan Fung (R) 220
South Carolina Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Henry McMaster (R) 557+5 James Emerson Smith (D) 172
South Dakota Republican governor Dennis Daugaard term-limited Billie Sutton (D) 1,094 Kristi Noem (R) 402+319
Tennessee Republican governor Bill Haslam term-limited Karl Dean (D) 1,920 Bill Lee (R) 1,290.
Texas Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Greg Abbott (R) 4,707 Lupe Valdez (D) 1,440+4
Vermont Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Phil Scott (R) 671+5 Christine Hallquist (D) 250.
Wisconsin Incumbent Republican governor running for re-election Scott Walker (R) 4,187+14 Tony Evers (D) 1,477+3
Wyoming Republican governor Matt Mead term-limited Mary Throne (D) 251 Mark Gordon (R) 172
Rex Rammell (C) 5

Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.


IFFY Awards: Oct. 30, 2018

OnTheIssues disendorsements for candidates who refuse to take issue stances

OnTheIssues condemns candidates with an "IFFY Award" for running an "Issue-Free campaign." These are "iffy" candidates because they refused to provide voters with information on what they believe and how they will legislate. They are likely to be "iffy legislators" too -- never providing their constituents with information, on the belief that the less voters know, the more likely the "iffy" candidates are to get re-elected.

An IFFY award is a non-partisan condemnation: OnTheIssues doesn't care WHAT candidates' issue stances are -- as long as they HAVE issue stances!

At OnTheIssues, we believe that candidates should make clear their issue stances, and if they don't do that, then they should not run for office at all, and if they get elected and still won't divulge their issue stances, that they should resign or be driven from office by outraged constituents. Following are our three "iffy" candidates for 2018:

    IFFY awardee:
    IFFY rationale:
  • NBC-10-TV reports that Fung avoided all primary debates: "The two favorite contenders for the major party�s nominations are refusing to appear in any of the offered statewide forums. 'It�s not OK in a democracy,' NBC 10's political analyst said. 'Avoiding debates might rub voters the wrong way and they might just end up staying home in the general election.' "

  • During the general election debate, the Providence Journal reported that Fung's independent opponent Joe Trillo brought up the IFFY issue: "Trillo saved his most colorful exchanges for Fung, whom he called 'wimpy' for not taking positions on issues."

  • OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Mayor Fung since 2014, when he also ran for Governor (and also provided few issue stances). Mayor Fung has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
  • KGOU's Trevor Brown reported that the sole one-hour debate on Sept. 24 "waded into social issues, including abortion, parental rights and gun control. Neither candidate, however, seemed to want to press these issues as campaign focal points."

  • Edmondson's opponent, however, has made public his stances on those three issues (and more), while Edmondson has not.

  • OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Edmondson all campaign season. Edmondson has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
  • Project VoteSmart reprots, "Chele Farley has refused to provide voters with positions on key issues covered by the 2018 Political Courage Test, despite repeated requests from Vote Smart and voters like you."

  • The Auburn Citizen commented that "In her campaign launch video... Farley blamed Gillibrand, a Democrat, for the state not getting its fair share from the federal government.... There wasn't much revealed in the video about Farley's platform."

  • Farley has continued that lack of platform throughout the campaign, running on a platform of Gillibrand's failings.

  • OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Farley all campaign season. Farley has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.

Source: See past IFFY disendorsements with links to candidates' issue stances.


House election prediction: Oct. 24, 2018

Predictions in four House races: two GOP victories; two Democratic victories

    House district and analysis:
    Predicted winner and loser, and OnTheIssues viewership scores:
    Alabama 2nd district:
  • Republican incumbent running for re-election.
  • The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2009-2011 and lost re-election in November 2010 to the current Republican incumbent.
  • In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this district, 65-33. Results were similarly lopsided in the previous four presidential elections.
  • We predict an overwhelming Republican victory in this district.
    Hawaii 1st district:
  • Democratic incumbent Colleen Hanabusa running for Governor in 2018.
  • The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Hawaii's 2nd district from 2002-2007 and ran for Senate (and lost) in November 2006.
  • The Republican nominee served in the Hawaii House and has been the Republican nominee for Senate three times, most recently in the 2014 Senate race.
  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 63-30. Results were similarly lopsided in 2000 through 2012.
  • We predict a Democratic victory in this district.
    Nevada 4th district:
  • Democratic incumbent Ruben Kihuen retiring in 2018.
  • The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2015-2017 and lost re-election in November 2016 to the current Democratic incumbent.
  • The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2013-2015 and lost re-election in November 2014 to the current Republican nominee.
  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 50-45. Results were similar in 2012, favoring Obama over Romney.
  • We predict a Republican victory in this district, despite its Democratic history.
    Pennsylvania 17th district:
  • This district had its borders redrawn in court-ordered redistricting during 2018, because of gerrymandering in the previous elections.
  • Hence both nominees are incumbents in neighboring districts, but many districts will shift around after the November election.
  • The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 18th district since the special election in 2018.
  • The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 12th district since the general election in 2012.
  • In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 54-43. But in 2012, Obama beat Romney 55-43.
  • We predict a very close Democratic victory in this district.

Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.


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